Insights

The longstanding inverse relationship between gold and real interest rates seems to have broken down, suggesting new forces—central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and portfolio diversification—have a larger role in driving demand.

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Inflation remains calm in 2025, but tariff-related price hike concerns have kept the Fed sidelined. We look at the Fed’s commentary, the impact of market forces and political pressure on yields, and the probability of rate cuts before year’s end.

The U.S. government’s fiscal outlook can no longer be ignored.

We maintain our bias towards quality UK large-cap stocks trading at a valuation discount to foreign competitors and prefer short-dated Gilts and investment-grade short-duration bonds.

The worst of the tariff volatility seems like it’s blown over. Markets are now focused on the remaining tariffs that are in place and their impact on domestic economic trends and Fed policy.

We continue to be constructive on China and Japan equities, notwithstanding lingering trade risks with the U.S. In fixed income corporates, we prefer higher-quality credits.

The region’s upcoming fiscal stimulus will provide new opportunities for equity investors, though bond markets will keep a close eye on countries’ fiscal sustainability.

Elevated gold prices should continue to support the TSX, while ongoing tariff uncertainties have us tilting toward perceived less risky categories within fixed income.