Collections from U.S. tariffs are surging. As legal uncertainty looms and costs gradually pass through, balancing resilient corporate fundamentals against policy risks remains crucial for portfolio positioning.

One clear winner from the Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut was the U.S. Treasury, which can roll over maturing debt at lower costs. Lower rates alone, however, are unlikely to make the country’s fiscal policy sustainable.

After outpacing cautious expectations in the first half of the year, the global economy could face new challenges from trade policy uncertainty and inflation over the coming months.