RBC's latest market insights reveal a more cautious stock outlook, slowing economic growth, and shifting investor sentiment. Here are five key takeaways to help you stay ahead in volatile markets.
The latest insights from Lori Calvasina, Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, offer a fresh perspective on where the market is heading and what investors should be watching. Here are five key takeaways from RBC's latest market updates.
For a deeper dive, tune in to Lori's podcast, RBC Markets in Motion, where she discusses market trends, investment strategies, and key takeaways in greater detail.
1. S&P 500 Target Cut: a more cautious outlook
RBC has revised its year-end 2025 S&P 500 price target down to 6,200 from 6,600, a 6% reduction. This adjustment reflects updated economic forecasts, including slower GDP growth and persistent inflation. Investors should prepare for a more volatile road ahead.
2. Economic growth concerns weigh on stocks
RBC's economists have cut their 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.6% (down from 2%), placing the economy in the "sluggish growth" category. Historically, when GDP growth falls within the 1.1% - 2% range, stock markets tend to struggle. While a recession isn't in the forecast, slower growth presents a key headwind for equities.
3. Bear case scenario revised lower
RBC has also lowered its bear case scenario for the S&P 500 to 5,550, down from 5,775. If economic data continues to weaken, or if markets experience a broader "growth scare," a deeper drawdown could materialize.
4. Sentiment signals a potential rebound - but not yet
Investor sentiment has reached extreme bearish levels, with AAII bullish sentiment as low as 1990, the Great Financial Crisis, and 2022 lows. Historically, these levels have preceded a 10% rebound within nine months, but timing remains uncertain. While pessimism is high, the market may need further confirmation before a contrarian buying opportunity arises.
5. Small business & consumer weakness is emerging
The latest NFIB small business survey shows declining optimism, while consumer sentiment is nearing levels historically associated with recessions. Inflation and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on both businesses and households, signaling potential spending slowdowns in the months ahead.
Investor takeaway
Markets face increasing challenges, but opportunities exist for investors who take a disciplined approach. Diversification remains key to managing risk in uncertain times, while staying informed on market trends can help investors make confident, strategic decisions. Now more than ever, it's important to feel confident about your investment management team and advisors. Having the right professionals in your corner can provide clarity and guidance when markets are volatile.
At Hyperion Wealth Group, we help clients navigate shifting market conditions with a focus on risk management, growth opportunities, and long-term financial success. Please reach out to our team for a personalized consultation.