Insights

May continued to see stocks rebound. The S&P 500 had its best month since 2023 and most indexes have recovered most of their losses for the year. Tariffs, tax legislation, and a U.S. credit downgrade were the main topics in May.

Inflation remains calm in 2025, but tariff-related price hike concerns have kept the Fed sidelined. We look at the Fed’s commentary, the impact of market forces and political pressure on yields, and the probability of rate cuts before year’s end.

The worst of the tariff volatility seems like it’s blown over. Markets are now focused on the remaining tariffs that are in place and their impact on domestic economic trends and Fed policy.

Three years ago, all Recession Scorecard indicators were rated expansionary green suggesting to us that the U.S. economy was on a firm footing with a long way to run. However, the picture has become decidedly more mixed.

Equity markets have bounced back smartly in Q2. Technical analysis suggests a move higher into early-to-mid-Q3, but investors should watch the U.S. dollar, and more importantly, 30-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields.

Greetings from the Rock Cut Investment Group! Stocks staged a late month-end rally to end one of their wildest-ever months. The S&P 500 ended the month down -0.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained +0.9%. The month of April was marked by some of the largest...

The U.S. equity market has taken investors on a bumpy roller coaster ride, leaving some of us queasy. We discuss what drove the rally, lingering risks, and the market’s potential from here.

U.S. government borrowing costs on longer-maturity debt have risen more quickly than on shorter-maturity debt since so-called reciprocal tariffs were announced. We discuss what drove that reaction and why the difference is likely to persist.

As the U.S. and China continue their tariff battle, we look at the potential impact of tariffs on China’s economic growth and what steps China equities investors should take if there is a market rebound.