Insights

May continued to see stocks rebound. The S&P 500 had its best month since 2023 and most indexes have recovered most of their losses for the year. Tariffs, tax legislation, and a U.S. credit downgrade were the main topics in May.

Inflation remains calm in 2025, but tariff-related price hike concerns have kept the Fed sidelined. We look at the Fed’s commentary, the impact of market forces and political pressure on yields, and the probability of rate cuts before year’s end.

The worst of the tariff volatility seems like it’s blown over. Markets are now focused on the remaining tariffs that are in place and their impact on domestic economic trends and Fed policy.

Three years ago, all Recession Scorecard indicators were rated expansionary green suggesting to us that the U.S. economy was on a firm footing with a long way to run. However, the picture has become decidedly more mixed.