Insights

We discuss key factors that have pushed the S&P 500’s valuation back up to lofty levels and how investors should weigh this in the portfolio decision-making process.

A challenging quarter ended with U.S. stocks at or near record levels! An interesting development since it was only April since the tariff announcement pushed stocks almost into bear territory (20% from their high).

President Trump’s mega-legislation brings pro-growth, investor- and business-friendly measures but also puts greater strain on the already very high federal debt.

For the Labour Party, restoring sustainable growth was always going to be challenging. A year on and the UK economy remains fragile, yet some investors may find the UK still offers some rich pickings.

While the stock market narrative may sound familiar—U.S. equities navigating waves of volatility on the way to new highs—the environment certainly was not. We examine four catalysts that held sway over performance and what lies ahead for investors.

May continued to see stocks rebound. The S&P 500 had its best month since 2023 and most indexes have recovered most of their losses for the year. Tariffs, tax legislation, and a U.S. credit downgrade were the main topics in May.

Inflation remains calm in 2025, but tariff-related price hike concerns have kept the Fed sidelined. We look at the Fed’s commentary, the impact of market forces and political pressure on yields, and the probability of rate cuts before year’s end.

The worst of the tariff volatility seems like it’s blown over. Markets are now focused on the remaining tariffs that are in place and their impact on domestic economic trends and Fed policy.

Three years ago, all Recession Scorecard indicators were rated expansionary green suggesting to us that the U.S. economy was on a firm footing with a long way to run. However, the picture has become decidedly more mixed.

Equity markets have bounced back smartly in Q2. Technical analysis suggests a move higher into early-to-mid-Q3, but investors should watch the U.S. dollar, and more importantly, 30-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields.